My Daughter

My Daughter
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Monday, February 14, 2005

The last 15 minutes

Clues abound these days that oil's not well in paradise.

A daily barrage of information seems to confirm the notion that we have indeed burned through at least half of the really high quality oil endowment of our planet.

Can any of you imagine any oil supplier in the world intentionally holding back production at today's prices? It's billions of dollars...

Recent announcements of new oil finds are lackluster when compared to the giant finds of the past decades. Not even close to offsetting depletion rates in existing wells.

Mankind has never used more oil in a single day... than we did today.

Major oil companies are investing billions into more exotic recovery strategies including tar sand, deep water, & coal gasification among others. Would they really spend so much on these less profitable resources, unless they knew conventional oil was set to decline in volume soon?

Growing numbers of scientists, researchers and authors warn of of the impending train wreck as oil supplies begin to shrink.

Saudi Arabia does not allow outside conformation of their reserve volume and condition... why?

This year the summer driving season should serve as a barometer for Saudi Arabia's ability to increase production as they claim. This next July, if oil prices climb up from $50 per barrel to $60 or beyond, it's a fair bet it's because they lied.

As pointed out by Matt Simmons, when Saudi Arabia can't pump more oil... then growth is over. There simply won't be enough oil to supply the market, and prices will begin rising continuously.

Just as we have seen the last 18 to 24 months.

If this reasoning is correct, then the peak production of conventional oil may be upon us. If we have been using oil energy for 100 plus years so far, then in about 15 minutes we will silently slip over the top of the curve, and into depletion.

Andy Warhol said everybody is famous for 15 minutes.

Enjoy your fame.

1 comment:

Dimitar Vesselinov said...

Global Guerrillas
"Networked organizations, infrastructure disruption, and the emerging marketplace of violence. An open notebook on the epochal war of the 21st Century."

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas