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Wednesday, February 16, 2005

When the chips are down

Peak Oil theory isn't really a theory.

Almost no one denies peak oil theory, since oil is, for all practical purposes, a finite resource. And that once the world passes the halfway point in global hydrocarbon production, energy gets more expensive as supplies drop.

The only real disagreement is the timing... when is the midpoint of production?

It's like the old joke, where a man asks his wife if she would sleep with another man for a million dollars. After she says yes of course she would, he then asks if she would sleep with him for $1?

"No!" comes the passionate reply. "What do you think I am?"

To which the husband responds, "Well, we already know what you are, now we are just haggling over price."

Since it's a foregone conclusion that at some point oil supplies will begin to decline, and prices rise, the real concern becomes, "How will the communities of the world respond?"

Absent a miracle in energy emerging, the competition for the remaining oil becomes more fierce as supplies dwindle. We see this competition heating up today, as global powers compete for oil contracts.

We are left to speculate how the nations with military power will respond as things get dicey.

As the situation becomes desperate, can we seriously expect restraint from countries faced with devastating social conditions?

World wars have been fought for less...

When the chips are down, do we really expect the powerful countries of our world to "band together" and share the remaining resources evenly?

Or is it more likely that nations will use whatever advantage is theirs to secure energy supplies?

Especially for countries which have experienced little real hardship for generations, will the pampered children of rich nations accept poverty and hardship without a fight?

The reaction of the US after 911 is a case in point.

A few thousand people die in a terrorist attack; fear & panic sweep the country. Fast forward to today with 2 countries invaded, hundreds of thousands of dead. All this while poor nations lose millions of lives to starvation, poverty and war.

What happens when our hydrocarbon chickens come home to roost?

Is there even any doubt?

1 comment:

amorando said...

Some of the chips are already down, the rooster has come home to roost. We are making war for oil right now.
According to Michael Ruppert's book "crossing the Rubecon" the war started with 9-11. His very extensively designated assertion is that people in the present administration, the same people that got us into IRaq, at least allowed or facilitated the terrorist attacks on the WTC. They did it to give an excuse to primarily Iraq, but the invasion may continue to surrounding countries and may well continue into a world war. China, Russia and India, big players in the oil market know that the US is in Iraq for oil. SO do Europeans. Many americans have been slower than many others to realize this. We are in short in the first stages of a global battle for oil, a militarly battle where young lives are lost.