paste of CWEI post by: ivorytowersecho 09/27/05 09:25 pm Msg: 177778 of 177779
If you didn't think I was crazy before
by: Todd1956 09/27/05 10:14 am Msg: 123996 of 124331
The following ideas (opinion based on privy data) will surely confirm your suspicions. I cannot believe that the street is as ignorant as the masses with regard to our energy situation. However they are confirming my opinion that less than 1% of the brokers/traders on Walls Street have any knowledge at all of the timeframe to bring production to market much less the time to repair the damages that have been inflicted in the GOM. This isn't just adding sand to the sandbox to fix the childrens wishes.
The lack of equipment , manpower, etc was bad before the storms , now its critical and not going to be fixed with money as everyone is loaded in this sector with nowhere to spend it because of the aformentioned problems. My source at BP has a preliminary report that would blow away the wildest of expectations with regard to lost production, damages, timeframe to return to a partial number of GOM production, as there will never be what there was before the storms. Right now the repairs have not even been contemplated as they feel that damage assessment will take till XMAS since the sub surface reviews were not anywhere near being finished from Katrina and now the scope is almost all of the GOM vs a relatively smaller area affected before.
The more relavent number IMO is that after Katrina an initial estimate of daily production to be abandoned was 100k bbl/day and 500 MMCFD of gas and it appears to now be low by a factor of 2. The risk premium being applied to the ROI for existing wells is going much higher in BP's calcs and the CAPEX for future GOM development is currently being slashed for the time being. I'm not saying reduced slighlty , I'm on record as saying slashed significantly. If the giant in the pen is doing this the smaller animals in the herd will surely follow suit. This information will not be supplied to the media or the government nor the public for obvious reasons.
The repair CAPEX is now almost equal to what would have been 2006 CAPEX and there is a ton of unknown damage below thw surface as I post. Until the shore facilities are repaired there will be NO pipeline assessments done and definitely no CL put through them until they are assured to be in perfect working order for environmental reasons. These additional costs have not even been factored in yet as the EPA hasn't attacked the pocketbooks yet , but they surely will at some point is the feeling in the War Room , still not operating in Houston. Once again the lack of news from the giant will be noticed through time as they will have the worst effect on the future pricing and carryn the most weight .
You can rest assured as winter gets closer without GOM production the concern will turn to worry then to panic and the spike associated in NG with the clearing picture of shortages by spring could easily cause a buying LDC panic in many large consumer markets in the North. I have predicted after Katrina that a spike to 24 is in my crystal ball with normal winter and after this am's info that I've been allowed to digest I'll stick my neck out and post a spike intraday price of $30 is not going to surprise me one bit.
Ther now the bears got all they need to commit me to a white suit... Time will tell but IF winter is colder than normal there should be NG rationing in our future IMHO.
GSF HIGH ISLAND 3 - Beached in West Cameron
GSF ADRIATIC 7 - Beached in Eugene Island
GSF ADRIATIC 4 - Sunk on location
ROWAN LOUISIANA - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN FORT WORTH - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN MIDDLETOWN - Missing
NOBLE JOE ALFORD - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN HALIFAX - Beached in East Cameron
ROWAN ODESSA - Missing Semis
NOBLE AMOS RUNNER - Aground in Vermilion
NOBLE MAX SMITH - Aground in Eugene Island
NOBLE PAUL ROMANO - Aground in Vermilion
NOBLE LORRIS BOUZIGARD - Adrift 240 miles out
NOBLE THERALD MARTIN - Adrfit 250 miles out
FALCON 100 - Aground
OCEAN SARATOGA - Aground
OCEAN STAR - Aground
TRANSOCEAN DEEPWATER NAUTILUS - Aground in South Timbalier
TRANSOCEAN MARIANAS - Aground in Eugene Island Spars/TLPs
CHEVRONTEXACO / BHP BILLITON - TYPHOON - Upside down in Eugene Island