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My Daughter
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Thursday, September 29, 2005

Oil & Gas to Skyrocket

paste of CWEI post by: ivorytowersecho 09/27/05 09:25 pm Msg: 177778 of 177779

If you didn't think I was crazy before

by: Todd1956 09/27/05 10:14 am Msg: 123996 of 124331

The following ideas (opinion based on privy data) will surely confirm your suspicions. I cannot believe that the street is as ignorant as the masses with regard to our energy situation. However they are confirming my opinion that less than 1% of the brokers/traders on Walls Street have any knowledge at all of the timeframe to bring production to market much less the time to repair the damages that have been inflicted in the GOM. This isn't just adding sand to the sandbox to fix the childrens wishes.

The lack of equipment , manpower, etc was bad before the storms , now its critical and not going to be fixed with money as everyone is loaded in this sector with nowhere to spend it because of the aformentioned problems. My source at BP has a preliminary report that would blow away the wildest of expectations with regard to lost production, damages, timeframe to return to a partial number of GOM production, as there will never be what there was before the storms. Right now the repairs have not even been contemplated as they feel that damage assessment will take till XMAS since the sub surface reviews were not anywhere near being finished from Katrina and now the scope is almost all of the GOM vs a relatively smaller area affected before.

The more relavent number IMO is that after Katrina an initial estimate of daily production to be abandoned was 100k bbl/day and 500 MMCFD of gas and it appears to now be low by a factor of 2. The risk premium being applied to the ROI for existing wells is going much higher in BP's calcs and the CAPEX for future GOM development is currently being slashed for the time being. I'm not saying reduced slighlty , I'm on record as saying slashed significantly. If the giant in the pen is doing this the smaller animals in the herd will surely follow suit. This information will not be supplied to the media or the government nor the public for obvious reasons.

The repair CAPEX is now almost equal to what would have been 2006 CAPEX and there is a ton of unknown damage below thw surface as I post. Until the shore facilities are repaired there will be NO pipeline assessments done and definitely no CL put through them until they are assured to be in perfect working order for environmental reasons. These additional costs have not even been factored in yet as the EPA hasn't attacked the pocketbooks yet , but they surely will at some point is the feeling in the War Room , still not operating in Houston. Once again the lack of news from the giant will be noticed through time as they will have the worst effect on the future pricing and carryn the most weight .

You can rest assured as winter gets closer without GOM production the concern will turn to worry then to panic and the spike associated in NG with the clearing picture of shortages by spring could easily cause a buying LDC panic in many large consumer markets in the North. I have predicted after Katrina that a spike to 24 is in my crystal ball with normal winter and after this am's info that I've been allowed to digest I'll stick my neck out and post a spike intraday price of $30 is not going to surprise me one bit.

Ther now the bears got all they need to commit me to a white suit... Time will tell but IF winter is colder than normal there should be NG rationing in our future IMHO.


GSF HIGH ISLAND 3 - Beached in West Cameron
GSF ADRIATIC 7 - Beached in Eugene Island
GSF ADRIATIC 4 - Sunk on location
ROWAN LOUISIANA - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN FORT WORTH - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN MIDDLETOWN - Missing
NOBLE JOE ALFORD - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN HALIFAX - Beached in East Cameron
ROWAN ODESSA - Missing Semis
NOBLE AMOS RUNNER - Aground in Vermilion
NOBLE MAX SMITH - Aground in Eugene Island
NOBLE PAUL ROMANO - Aground in Vermilion
NOBLE LORRIS BOUZIGARD - Adrift 240 miles out
NOBLE THERALD MARTIN - Adrfit 250 miles out
FALCON 100 - Aground
OCEAN SARATOGA - Aground
OCEAN STAR - Aground
TRANSOCEAN DEEPWATER NAUTILUS - Aground in South Timbalier
TRANSOCEAN MARIANAS - Aground in Eugene Island Spars/TLPs
CHEVRONTEXACO / BHP BILLITON - TYPHOON - Upside down in Eugene Island

28 comments:

cmeltifa said...

Well this blog certainly is not about ben hogan golf equipment . What the heck! I guess the internet can play some tricks on us sometimes. I have been on-line for two hours
researching ben hogan golf equipment and came tumbling across your blog. I LOVE IT! I needed a break from ben hogan golf equipment anyways :-) If you don't mind I want to add your
blog to my favorites list so I can come back later on and read some more stuff. Well I guess I should get back to researching ben hogan golf equipment .
Even though my search is not on Oil & Gas to Skyrocket I am glad I came across your blog. Keep blogging away!

hplauze said...

All I can say is WOW Aaron Dunlap. The other half and I just got back from our friends house (well her friends house) and I needed a huge break. I am working on a project right now that is based on golf equipment repairs. I have literally been on-line for 2-3 hours doing research. Even though Oil & Gas to Skyrocket really isn’t on the same page as golf equipment repairs I am certainly glad I came across your blog. There are a ton of great view points on this blog. Well I think I can here the kids screaming in the background. I put you in my internet favorites and I will certainly come back and visit. If you want to take a peek at my site you can find me here at golf equipment repairs. I update my site very frequently. Again, great job blogging and I will be back again soon!

Rebek said...

I have been on-line searching for hours for information regarding ben hogan golf equipment and stumbled across your blog during my journey :-) Aaron Dunlap your blog is really amazing! Keep up the great work. Obviously my search on ben hogan golf equipment was way off when compared to Oil & Gas to Skyrocket and find it funny how it landed me here. The internet is a funny thing. Anyways, great job on your blogging and keep up the good work! I been searching for ben hogan golf equipment for over 2 hours and needed a break from it. I started reading your blog and really started getting into it.
P.S I will add you to my favorites so I can come back and visit later
P.S.S If you want to bookmark my site I am at ben hogan golf equipment . You never know you may find some good deals!

Derek said...

Hey Aaron Dunlap. Very nice blog :0) I just got inside from washing and waxing my truck. It is my baby. Took me 2 hours though. So I settled down into my basement and started doing some web surfing. Anyways I am in the process of grabbing my masters degree and have spent the last 6 months researching golf equipment seattle. In the midst of my surfing I landed smack dab in the middle of your blog. I hope you do not think I am intruding but I must say it is great blog. Even though Oil & Gas to Skyrocket is way off base from golf equipment seattle I found myself cruising through your blog archives for the last half hour :0) You have some nice blogging friends. Anyways, I need to get back to my mission. I wrote don’t your url and feel free to visit me here at golf equipment seattle. I am so busy so I can only update my site monthly. Keep up the great work.

Rebek said...

Hi Aaron Dunlap your blog is really great! Wow :-) As I was out blog surfing and surfing the web for detailed info on golf testing equipment I stumbled across your blog. Obviously my search landed me here and it is a little off subject compared to Oil & Gas to Skyrocket, but I am certainly glad I did come across your blog. Did I already tell you I like it! If you would not mind, I would like to add your link to my "favorites" page to come back and read again sometime. Should you ever need it, there's lots of information on this site about golf testing equipment. Again, great blog and keep up the great work!

Rachel said...

What up Aaron Dunlap! I just finished up a ten hour work day and decided to kick back and do some surfing. So I grabbed myself a drink and stumbled across your blog while doing some research on golf equipment forums for a upcoming project I am doing. Well even though Oil & Gas to Skyrocket isn’t what I was looking for I really enjoyed reading your blog. Your doing a great job and please keep up the good work. Lots of people do not keep their blogs up to date :0) There are some very interesting view points stated here. Anyways I am going to grab the bull by the horns and continue to plug away at golf equipment forums. I have already bookmarked your blog. You many want to visit me at golf equipment forums. You never know you might see something you like! Again great job.

Rebek said...

Hi Aaron Dunlap your blog is really great! Wow :-) As I was out blog surfing and surfing the web for detailed info on golf equipment repairs I stumbled across your blog. Obviously my search landed me here and it is a little off subject compared to Oil & Gas to Skyrocket, but I am certainly glad I did come across your blog. Did I already tell you I like it! If you would not mind, I would like to add your link to my "favorites" page to come back and read again sometime. Should you ever need it, there's lots of information on this site about golf equipment repairs. Again, great blog and keep up the great work!

hplauze said...

Sad to say I just got back from a bowling tournament and decided to log in and do some websurfing. Aaron Dunlap I love your blog. I had some very good laughs. I am doing a paper on golf equipment forums and have been downloading information for the last hour. I don’t know how I came across Oil & Gas to Skyrocket but I am glad I did. It has set me back a little because I have spent the last hour reading your archives. If you don’t mind I would like to add you to my favorites so I can back again and read some more. Well I need to get back to golf equipment forums. I am almost finished with it. Great job.
p.s some very good points on your blog

cmeltifa said...

Well this blog certainly is not about golf equipment trends. What the heck! I guess the internet can play some tricks on us sometimes. I have been on-line for two hours
researching golf equipment trends and came tumbling across your blog. I LOVE IT! I needed a break from golf equipment trends anyways :-) If you don't mind I want to add your
blog to my favorites list so I can come back later on and read some more stuff. Well I guess I should get back to researching golf equipment trends.
Even though my search is not on Oil & Gas to Skyrocket I am glad I came across your blog. Keep blogging away!

cmeltifa said...

Hey Aaron Dunlap. Very nice blog :0) I just got inside from washing and waxing my truck. It is my baby. Took me 2 hours though. So I settled down into my basement and started doing some web surfing. Anyways I am in the process of grabbing my masters degree and have spent the last 6 months researching seattle golf equipment . In the midst of my surfing I landed smack dab in the middle of your blog. I hope you do not think I am intruding but I must say it is great blog. Even though Oil & Gas to Skyrocket is way off base from seattle golf equipment I found myself cruising through your blog archives for the last half hour :0) You have some nice blogging friends. Anyways, I need to get back to my mission. I wrote don’t your url and feel free to visit me here at seattle golf equipment . I am so busy so I can only update my site monthly. Keep up the great work.

Rachel said...

Hey this blog is not about golf equipment forums. Silly internet bringing me here :-) Funny I have been doing hours of research on golf equipment forums and it brought me to your blog on Oil & Gas to Skyrocket. The web plays funny games sometimes. Anyways, I was reading your blog Aaron Dunlap and I think it is really cool. Keep up the great work.
If you do not mind I will snag your blog and put it in my favorites. I read a ton of stuff on here that interested me. Keep blogging away :-)

Derek said...

Sad to say I just got back from a bowling tournament and decided to log in and do some websurfing. Aaron Dunlap I love your blog. I had some very good laughs. I am doing a paper on golf equipment trends and have been downloading information for the last hour. I don’t know how I came across Oil & Gas to Skyrocket but I am glad I did. It has set me back a little because I have spent the last hour reading your archives. If you don’t mind I would like to add you to my favorites so I can back again and read some more. Well I need to get back to golf equipment trends. I am almost finished with it. Great job.
p.s some very good points on your blog

hplauze said...

Hey this blog is not about golf equipment retailers. Silly internet bringing me here :-) Funny I have been doing hours of research on golf equipment retailers and it brought me to your blog on Oil & Gas to Skyrocket. The web plays funny games sometimes. Anyways, I was reading your blog Aaron Dunlap and I think it is really cool. Keep up the great work.
If you do not mind I will snag your blog and put it in my favorites. I read a ton of stuff on here that interested me. Keep blogging away :-)

Marky said...

All I can say is WOW Aaron Dunlap. The other half and I just got back from our friends house (well her friends house) and I needed a huge break. I am working on a project right now that is based on golf equipment repairs. I have literally been on-line for 2-3 hours doing research. Even though Oil & Gas to Skyrocket really isn’t on the same page as golf equipment repairs I am certainly glad I came across your blog. There are a ton of great view points on this blog. Well I think I can here the kids screaming in the background. I put you in my internet favorites and I will certainly come back and visit. If you want to take a peek at my site you can find me here at golf equipment repairs. I update my site very frequently. Again, great job blogging and I will be back again soon!

Marky said...

I have been on-line searching for hours for information regarding custom golf equipment and stumbled across your blog during my journey :-) Aaron Dunlap your blog is really amazing! Keep up the great work. Obviously my search on custom golf equipment was way off when compared to Oil & Gas to Skyrocket and find it funny how it landed me here. The internet is a funny thing. Anyways, great job on your blogging and keep up the good work! I been searching for custom golf equipment for over 2 hours and needed a break from it. I started reading your blog and really started getting into it.
P.S I will add you to my favorites so I can come back and visit later
P.S.S If you want to bookmark my site I am at custom golf equipment . You never know you may find some good deals!

Rebek said...

Hey Aaron Dunlap. Very nice blog :0) I just got inside from washing and waxing my truck. It is my baby. Took me 2 hours though. So I settled down into my basement and started doing some web surfing. Anyways I am in the process of grabbing my masters degree and have spent the last 6 months researching golf equipment trends. In the midst of my surfing I landed smack dab in the middle of your blog. I hope you do not think I am intruding but I must say it is great blog. Even though Oil & Gas to Skyrocket is way off base from golf equipment trends I found myself cruising through your blog archives for the last half hour :0) You have some nice blogging friends. Anyways, I need to get back to my mission. I wrote don’t your url and feel free to visit me here at golf equipment trends. I am so busy so I can only update my site monthly. Keep up the great work.

Rebek said...

Hey this blog is not about golf equipment forums. Silly internet bringing me here :-) Funny I have been doing hours of research on golf equipment forums and it brought me to your blog on Oil & Gas to Skyrocket. The web plays funny games sometimes. Anyways, I was reading your blog Aaron Dunlap and I think it is really cool. Keep up the great work.
If you do not mind I will snag your blog and put it in my favorites. I read a ton of stuff on here that interested me. Keep blogging away :-)

cmeltifa said...

All I can say is WOW Aaron Dunlap. The other half and I just got back from our friends house (well her friends house) and I needed a huge break. I am working on a project right now that is based on golf equipment trends. I have literally been on-line for 2-3 hours doing research. Even though Oil & Gas to Skyrocket really isn’t on the same page as golf equipment trends I am certainly glad I came across your blog. There are a ton of great view points on this blog. Well I think I can here the kids screaming in the background. I put you in my internet favorites and I will certainly come back and visit. If you want to take a peek at my site you can find me here at golf equipment trends. I update my site very frequently. Again, great job blogging and I will be back again soon!

cmeltifa said...

Hi Aaron Dunlap your blog is really great! Wow :-) As I was out blog surfing and surfing the web for detailed info on golf equipment repairs I stumbled across your blog. Obviously my search landed me here and it is a little off subject compared to Oil & Gas to Skyrocket, but I am certainly glad I did come across your blog. Did I already tell you I like it! If you would not mind, I would like to add your link to my "favorites" page to come back and read again sometime. Should you ever need it, there's lots of information on this site about golf equipment repairs. Again, great blog and keep up the great work!

hplauze said...

I have been on-line searching for hours for information regarding seattle golf equipment and stumbled across your blog during my journey :-) Aaron Dunlap your blog is really amazing! Keep up the great work. Obviously my search on seattle golf equipment was way off when compared to Oil & Gas to Skyrocket and find it funny how it landed me here. The internet is a funny thing. Anyways, great job on your blogging and keep up the good work! I been searching for seattle golf equipment for over 2 hours and needed a break from it. I started reading your blog and really started getting into it.
P.S I will add you to my favorites so I can come back and visit later
P.S.S If you want to bookmark my site I am at seattle golf equipment . You never know you may find some good deals!

Rachel said...

Hey Aaron Dunlap. Very nice blog :0) I just got inside from washing and waxing my truck. It is my baby. Took me 2 hours though. So I settled down into my basement and started doing some web surfing. Anyways I am in the process of grabbing my masters degree and have spent the last 6 months researching seattle golf equipment . In the midst of my surfing I landed smack dab in the middle of your blog. I hope you do not think I am intruding but I must say it is great blog. Even though Oil & Gas to Skyrocket is way off base from seattle golf equipment I found myself cruising through your blog archives for the last half hour :0) You have some nice blogging friends. Anyways, I need to get back to my mission. I wrote don’t your url and feel free to visit me here at seattle golf equipment . I am so busy so I can only update my site monthly. Keep up the great work.

Rachel said...

I have been on-line searching for hours for information regarding golf equipment forums and stumbled across your blog during my journey :-) Aaron Dunlap your blog is really amazing! Keep up the great work. Obviously my search on golf equipment forums was way off when compared to Oil & Gas to Skyrocket and find it funny how it landed me here. The internet is a funny thing. Anyways, great job on your blogging and keep up the good work! I been searching for golf equipment forums for over 2 hours and needed a break from it. I started reading your blog and really started getting into it.
P.S I will add you to my favorites so I can come back and visit later
P.S.S If you want to bookmark my site I am at golf equipment forums. You never know you may find some good deals!

Rod said...

Fantastic blog you've got here Aaron Dunlap, I was looking for home improvement related information and found your site. I have a home improvement site. If you need help with your home improvement projects or repairs, or have any remodeling related questions, you can get solid answers and practical information to virtually anything related to home improvement needs. You'll also find common solutions to concerns for auto repair, computer repair, and expert advice from credit repair services. Stop by and check it out when you can. :)
If you have a site similar to mine and would like to exchange links, please contact me through my website.

Rachel said...

Hi Aaron Dunlap, very unique blog you have! I was looking for auto repair related information and came across your site. Very good info, I'm definitely going to bookmark you! I have a auto repair site. If you need help with your home improvement projects or repairs, or have any remodeling related questions, you can get solid answers and practical information to virtually anything related to home improvement needs. You'll also find common solutions to concerns for auto repair, computer repair, and expert advice from credit repair services. Please visit it. :)
If you have a site similar to mine and would like to exchange links, please contact me through my website.

All about Golf said...

I just came across your blog and wanted to drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with the information you have posted here.
I also have a web site & blog about golf course public so I know what I'm talking about when I say your site is top-notch! Keep up the great work!

bleeder said...

I dig your blog. How long has it been on-line? Reason I ask is I am doing a ton of research in the area of free golf equipment and will probably end up starting a blog of my own. Funny how the internet brought me here when I was doing searches on free golf equipment. Oh well, I am glad it did. Keep up the great blogging and I am sure I will visit your blog again!! I mean I know I will stop by again.
I also sent it off to a good friend of mine.

p.s added you to my favorites take a moment to stop by free golf equipment for I update it frequently

daniel said...

Great website. Couldn't ask for any more useful info! Thank you :-)
golf equipment dallas

Frank Polenose said...

Great site you have here - well done.
Frank @ Secured Loans