My Daughter

My Daughter
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Sunday, November 13, 2005

Doubling Time & the Limits to Growth

3 1/2 % growth per year means the original quantity doubles in 20 years.

Is there anyone left who thinks that by 2025 our world will be consuming 170 million barrels of oil per day?

... or even 100 MBPD?

We have reached the limits of our most productive source of energy.

The black ceiling.

Since it is this expanding base of hydrocarbon resources which has enabled the growth of world economies these last 100 years, it becomes obvious that expectations of further growth are unfounded.

This is our achilles heel.

Our economies require growth to function.

From ancient barter economies, through 10,000 years of growth into today's massive markets, yesterday's debts are paid with tomorrow's growth.

So what if growth is over?

With the inertia of hundreds of generations of rolling debt, what happens when these debts come due?

Last one out, please turn off the lights.

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