My Daughter

My Daughter
Remember when you learned how to do this?

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Oil & Gas to Skyrocket

paste of CWEI post by: ivorytowersecho 09/27/05 09:25 pm Msg: 177778 of 177779

If you didn't think I was crazy before

by: Todd1956 09/27/05 10:14 am Msg: 123996 of 124331

The following ideas (opinion based on privy data) will surely confirm your suspicions. I cannot believe that the street is as ignorant as the masses with regard to our energy situation. However they are confirming my opinion that less than 1% of the brokers/traders on Walls Street have any knowledge at all of the timeframe to bring production to market much less the time to repair the damages that have been inflicted in the GOM. This isn't just adding sand to the sandbox to fix the childrens wishes.

The lack of equipment , manpower, etc was bad before the storms , now its critical and not going to be fixed with money as everyone is loaded in this sector with nowhere to spend it because of the aformentioned problems. My source at BP has a preliminary report that would blow away the wildest of expectations with regard to lost production, damages, timeframe to return to a partial number of GOM production, as there will never be what there was before the storms. Right now the repairs have not even been contemplated as they feel that damage assessment will take till XMAS since the sub surface reviews were not anywhere near being finished from Katrina and now the scope is almost all of the GOM vs a relatively smaller area affected before.

The more relavent number IMO is that after Katrina an initial estimate of daily production to be abandoned was 100k bbl/day and 500 MMCFD of gas and it appears to now be low by a factor of 2. The risk premium being applied to the ROI for existing wells is going much higher in BP's calcs and the CAPEX for future GOM development is currently being slashed for the time being. I'm not saying reduced slighlty , I'm on record as saying slashed significantly. If the giant in the pen is doing this the smaller animals in the herd will surely follow suit. This information will not be supplied to the media or the government nor the public for obvious reasons.

The repair CAPEX is now almost equal to what would have been 2006 CAPEX and there is a ton of unknown damage below thw surface as I post. Until the shore facilities are repaired there will be NO pipeline assessments done and definitely no CL put through them until they are assured to be in perfect working order for environmental reasons. These additional costs have not even been factored in yet as the EPA hasn't attacked the pocketbooks yet , but they surely will at some point is the feeling in the War Room , still not operating in Houston. Once again the lack of news from the giant will be noticed through time as they will have the worst effect on the future pricing and carryn the most weight .

You can rest assured as winter gets closer without GOM production the concern will turn to worry then to panic and the spike associated in NG with the clearing picture of shortages by spring could easily cause a buying LDC panic in many large consumer markets in the North. I have predicted after Katrina that a spike to 24 is in my crystal ball with normal winter and after this am's info that I've been allowed to digest I'll stick my neck out and post a spike intraday price of $30 is not going to surprise me one bit.

Ther now the bears got all they need to commit me to a white suit... Time will tell but IF winter is colder than normal there should be NG rationing in our future IMHO.


GSF HIGH ISLAND 3 - Beached in West Cameron
GSF ADRIATIC 7 - Beached in Eugene Island
GSF ADRIATIC 4 - Sunk on location
ROWAN LOUISIANA - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN FORT WORTH - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN MIDDLETOWN - Missing
NOBLE JOE ALFORD - Beached in West Cameron
ROWAN HALIFAX - Beached in East Cameron
ROWAN ODESSA - Missing Semis
NOBLE AMOS RUNNER - Aground in Vermilion
NOBLE MAX SMITH - Aground in Eugene Island
NOBLE PAUL ROMANO - Aground in Vermilion
NOBLE LORRIS BOUZIGARD - Adrift 240 miles out
NOBLE THERALD MARTIN - Adrfit 250 miles out
FALCON 100 - Aground
OCEAN SARATOGA - Aground
OCEAN STAR - Aground
TRANSOCEAN DEEPWATER NAUTILUS - Aground in South Timbalier
TRANSOCEAN MARIANAS - Aground in Eugene Island Spars/TLPs
CHEVRONTEXACO / BHP BILLITON - TYPHOON - Upside down in Eugene Island

Friday, September 16, 2005

Greetings From Mexico

Hola Amigos,

Just taking a break from life down in Isla Mujeres Mexico and wanted to say hi to all the folks.

Hi folks...

No phone, no news, nada...

Ahhh depletion... the cause of... and solution to... all life´s problems.

See everyone next week.

http://lasbrisasisla.com/images/Las_Brisas_0001.wmv
Aaron

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

PO.com down for Upgrade

We are performing a server upgrade today to accommodate the growing traffic.

Thanks to everyone for your patience.

Back shortly!

Sunday, September 04, 2005

Shooting the Messenger

One of the most contemptible techniques in debating is the "ad hominem" attack, where you simply ignore the substance of your opponent's argument and attack them personally. You focus on their credibility, their motives, anything that will discredit them—without addressing the points they raise.

It's far easier to blame, and often even severely punish, the messenger than to accept bad news—especially news that upsets one's view of the world. In the peakoil debate, they may even go so far as to call you a hypocrite for driving a car or being dependent on oil. Myself, I love all the things that cheap oil brings, but I am also concerned about society, global warming, the loss of biodiversity, and I want to help people think about, and begin preparing for, the future ahead.

Ideologically, we need an ecological worldview; a paradigm shift in our thinking about the world about us. There is a bit of a conundrum though: it is difficult, if almost impossible for people of one paradigm to communicate with those who perceive and reason in terms dictated by another different paradigm. We all need to be on the same page and we are not.

Many people just cannot fathom an ecological worldview based upon limits and a balance with nature; to them it would be run by environmental tree-hugging whackos or worse. Shaking their heads at any mention of a departure from their Newtonian Mechanics worldview, they insist competent people need to knock these whackos aside in order to make real progress. In disgust, they venture forth in their insipid rants of personal attacks on the bearers of reality, thinking they have somehow performed a service to mankind in the frivolous exercise of their naive arrogance.

The cornucopians believe the “free hand of the market” will ride to the rescue. We will soon tool around in our hydrogen-powered golf-carts and cars, while counting our windfall profits from investments in the “right” sectors. They offer "solutions in isolation", advocating tar sands and shale oil while ignoring greenhouse gases.

At the root of any well-thought out “doomer” position is the realization that exponential growth in a finite world is unsustainable in the first place. There are limits. We have been able to circumvent these limits for some time by exploiting a one-time gift of cheap, non-renewable fossils fuels. There is currently no alternative basket of technologies capable of being scaled up in the manner we need to replace them. This will take time. Time we do not have.

Peak oil is tomorrow in planning terms. They know this, but cannot find the facts to dispute it, nor can they show you any of their so-called “techno-fix” progress. Thus, they resort to savaging your credibility. So, next time you are in a debate and someone resorts to an ad hominem attack, it's either an admission of failure and you have won the argument, or you are bumping up against an “old school” worldview.

A worldview that they are loathe to abandon in the face of another that they cannot fathom.

Saturday, September 03, 2005

Lander & Doomers

This is a recurring theme around here.

Landers on one side & doomers on the other, with the moderates in between trying to keep the peace. First, if you think PO is about fluffy unicorns prancing around your bio fuels station after a mild road bump in hydrocarbon production... then why the hell are you here?
Voyeurism?

Boredom?

Ego-centrism?

It's as if you think mankind will just coast into the hydrogen filling station when your gas runs out.

I'll share with you my core reason for being a so called "doomer".

It's because of all you Landers. Your insane belief in the continued growth of human systems has brought us to this juncture, and threatens to plunge us into resource wars going forward. The market will solve right? Solve what? Oh yes, the problem is "How can we sustain our mad experiment in growth and continue trashing our planet on a geologic scale?" Smash up corn & turkeys? Extract exotic methane from the seafloor? Liquefy coal? Cooking oil? Anything to keep the machine growing yes?

Your "Emperors New Clothes" attitudes hold the seeds of our doom, and promises an unpleasant future for our descendants.

To be fair, I don't hold with the conspiracy crapola myself, so Ruppert & company do detract from the actual debate. It's not raving hoards of Illuminati warriors I fear, or 911 cover-up black ops, or alien sphincter probes. I fear you Lander's complacency in the face of reality... scarcity = conflict So while you choose the most outrageous doomer prescriptions for the future to rebut, the reality of depletion continues.

The Landers would have mankind continue dumping carbon into the environment without pause. While the largest ice sheet in the world sprints across Greenland at 100 feet per day, melting a hundred times faster than only 5 years ago.

One thing is certain... finding even more carbon to release is NOT a solution to our carbon dilemma. So unless you plan to panel China, & India with wall to wall solar panels, the collapse of the hydrocarbon economy is inevitable. And with that collapse comes war. Thanks... for nothing.

Forget the Skull & Bones nonsense... Ignore the NWO nonsense. You can even ignore the geologic aspects of peak oil itself. Pay attention to how your neighbors react to our hydrocarbon dilemma...

It's kinda like a first date... pay attention to how your date treats your server at the restaurant. Because that's how they will be treating you in 6 weeks.

Most of you have never experienced real hardship. Your naive Pollyanna attitudes tell the tale. Your holier than thou attitudes make it clear you have never actually suffered with hunger or homelessness.

Think you are better than those poor skeletons in New Orleans? News Flash... you aren't. Landers demonstrate the validity of the observation that the only thing we learn from history, is that we learn little from history. As my favorite NWO, illuminati, Masonic, 911 causing, nutcase says: Doom

Friday, September 02, 2005

A Day Late and a Dollar Short

A timeless idiom. We just flat came up with “too little too late" for the suffering mass of humanity in New Orleans. We came within a cat’s whisker of crazed, starved-mobs-bent-on-violence rending what was left of the city into tatters. America literally declared itself unable to rescue its’ citizens from the ravages of nature, much less, the ineptitude of disaster planning. Where were the plans to evacuate the poor, the elderly, and those without cars or money for transportation? Why can we squander $300 billion on Iraq, but can only cough up a measly $10 billion dollars worth of relief for our own people right here at home?

Maybe the-powers-that-be didn’t think it was human beings that were stranded in, and on, their flood-engulfed homes. I think this response had a lot to do with the majority of the victims being poor black folks. Can you imagine leaving white people on their roofs for a week?

No one can say they didn't see it coming. We even knew with a great degree of certitude exactly how this would play out. The Internet is replete with recent pre-Katrina articles and studies outlining the enormity of just how catastrophic such an event would be. Where was the armada of inflatable Zodiac boats that should have been stored to rescue people from their flooded homes?

As a nation, we tragically let down the people of New Orleans. They deserved better, and we should have provided it.

Ironically, New Orleans has now returned to the coastal wetlands that man once destroyed. Mother Nature always bats last. For some reason, she just doesn’t like to be "managed."

We were fore-warned and they say hindsight is 20/20, but will we ever be fore-armed? I doubt it. We weren’t prepared for 911, we weren’t prepared for hurricane Katrina, and we aren’t prepared for peak-oil.

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Peak Oil Dodgeball

I'm not sure what politically correct, weeny version of dodge ball the kids play today; probably wearing helmets & throwing marshmallows.

But back in the day, we played real dodge ball.

With nothing but your wits to protect you, we took the field of honor with the knowledge of certain pain and humiliation to come. Stalking through a sea of bodies, alert to incoming salvos of small red kick-balls, we played our ancient game.

Domination

We played a version where the side boundaries changed through the game, ending up with the final competitors only feet from one another. The times we played with volleyballs were a brutal and frightening dance with danger & pain.

Sounds fun huh? What's funny is... it was fun.

Pitted, against our own will, in a contest of domination & pain, we learned to enjoy the art of combat. We quickly learned that the pain and humiliation came no matter what we did, so we were taught to stalk and execute, to prey upon each other.

You don't get to choose sides in dodge ball do you?

The side chooses you.

Flash forward a quarter of a century... we find ourselves in the same situation.

By virtue of geography, creed, religion or just luck, your side has chosen you.

And it is only the utter futility of your situation which will force you to finally accept the status quo... and play. Just like in dodge ball.

As we see plainly in New Orleans today, humanity isn't nearly as advanced & sophisticated as we like to think it is. Rather we are all one step away from violence and chaos; cruelty and retribution, panic and pain.

Just like in dodge ball...