My Daughter

My Daughter
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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Denninger to Congress: The Truth Ben & Hank aren't Telling

Congress, please listen: 

The Truth is that we now require about $5 of debt to generate $1 of GDP. 

The Truth is that the reason you were not asked to approve $700 billion to capitalize 10 new banks, thereby creating seven trillion in lending capacity is that the economy cannot soak up that new lending capacity; each dollar of new debt generates almost no aggregate GDP. If this were not true then that would be the logical and effective cure for the 'credit crunch" - if the borrowing capacity and impact on GDP necessary to help existed. They do not. 

The Truth is that you were lied to about the purpose of the TARP/EESA, because what you were sold was mathematically impossible. It is supposed to be unlawful to lie to Congress. 

The Truth is that the purpose of the EESA/TARP is to rescue the bankers on Wall Street and elsewhere who have made imprudent loans, all of whom are aware of the declining value of a dollar of debt in the economy - a fact they have intentionally concealed from you. The bankers (including Hank and Ben) all know how to do this math, and they are well-aware that the best they can do at this point is to "Rob every dollar you can while the getting is good, and hope they don't figure it out before you get the cash." 

The Truth is that once you reach a level where a dollar in debt will not support a dollar in GDP you must inevitably either pay down or default that excess debt. Unfortunately, in this case we must pay down or default approximately 80% of the aggregate public and private debt in the United States in order to return to a standard were $1 in debt will generate $1 in GDP. Defaulting or paying down less will "turn the clock back" to a degree, but does not change the ultimate outcome. Only returning to $1 of debt returning $1 or more of GDP, and holding the total level of debt outstanding at or below that level, results in a stable monetary system. 

The Truth is that if we reach the point where a dollar of debt has a NEGATIVE impact on GDP The United States monetary system and government will implode. The reason for this is mathematically obvious - each additional dollar of borrowing beyond that point actually contracts GDP instead of growing it; this is, for all intents and purposes, a "black hole". It is that event that has led to the implosion of other monetary systems such as the hyperinflationary implosion of Argentina.