My Daughter

My Daughter
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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports 2009

Prediction
Unleaded Prediction 24-Apr
Beginning Inv mbbl 217.3
Imports Wk/Day 7.7 1.1
Production Wk/Day 64.4 9.2
Available 289.4
Balance Wk/Day 70.7 10.1
Ending Inv Mbbl 218.70
Prod Supplied 9.1
Predicted Change 1.4



Distillates Prediction 24-Apr
Beginning Inv mbbl 142.3
Imports Wk/Day 1.4 0.2
Production Wk/Day 27.3 3.9
Available 171
Balance Wk/Day 28.7 4.1
Ending Inv Mbbl 142.3
Prod Supplied 4.1
Predicted Change 0.0


Crude Oil Prediction 24-Apr
Beginning Inventory 370.6
Domestic Prod 38.15 5.45
Imports 65.8 9.4
SPR+/Supply- -1.61 -0.23
Total Available 472.94
Provided to Refineries 101.5 14.5
Ending Inventory 371.44
Predicted Change 0.84
Refinery Utilization 83.000


You just get the feeling that there are some funny things going on.... maybe it's just below the surface... maybe it just stayed too quiet for too long.... maybe it's just the season, people getting ready to gear up for summer...

a. We have this situation with the tankers, noted above... an unprecedented collapse in the baltic dry rate, lots of floating storage available.

b. big fluctuations in the import figure every week... the system importing as much oil as ever, even though the inventory is at a multi-decade high....

c. the refining capacity dropping temporarily to a new multi-decade low for April a couple of weeks ago, followed by an uptick last week..

d. the pricing, increasing a couple of dollars on Sunday night, like it did yesterday... still off by 66% versus a year ago...

e. You have the demand. Unleaded demand is within roundoff error of what it was last year at this time. Distillates way off, jet fuel way way off.... 

f. The little "gap" between calculated and actual demand on unleaded.... it was over 1.1 mbpd last week, which is really high, compared to its historical level of about .7, which suggests that there are a lot of blending components coming into the country, that are double counted as they are blended at the tank farm....

g. We have the trillions of dollars that were pumped into the economy over the last six months looking for a home... some of it ended up in gold, which is still over 900 I think.... perhaps some of it is ending up in oil.... 

h. No word from China on anything.... except their demand was down 16% or something year-on-year.

i. Suggestions that OPEC did indeed cut back this spring, but all of the volume being made up by Russia and Brazil

j. Potential collapse of Cantarell....

So, there are a lot of things going on in the subsurface, that for the moment are ending up as nothing, but might at some point end up as something.....

As long as we continue to import 1.1 mbpd of unleaded into the country, at the current usage levels, we will continue to build inventory.

Despite the increased refinery usage, plus deposits into the SPR, we will continue to build the crude a little... despite the fact that the citizens of Cushing are already ankle-deep...as long as we continue to import over 9 mbpd

the production dial is all the way turned toward "unleaded" right now, so we will be about even in distillates, as long as the demand remains seasonally like it now is.

This could get fun, if there are widespread disruptions in the travel system because of the flu.....

Perhaps it is time to lay in a supply of popcorn....

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