My Daughter

My Daughter
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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports 2009

Prediction
Unleaded Prediction 24-Apr
Beginning Inv mbbl 217.3
Imports Wk/Day 7.7 1.1
Production Wk/Day 64.4 9.2
Available 289.4
Balance Wk/Day 70.7 10.1
Ending Inv Mbbl 218.70
Prod Supplied 9.1
Predicted Change 1.4



Distillates Prediction 24-Apr
Beginning Inv mbbl 142.3
Imports Wk/Day 1.4 0.2
Production Wk/Day 27.3 3.9
Available 171
Balance Wk/Day 28.7 4.1
Ending Inv Mbbl 142.3
Prod Supplied 4.1
Predicted Change 0.0


Crude Oil Prediction 24-Apr
Beginning Inventory 370.6
Domestic Prod 38.15 5.45
Imports 65.8 9.4
SPR+/Supply- -1.61 -0.23
Total Available 472.94
Provided to Refineries 101.5 14.5
Ending Inventory 371.44
Predicted Change 0.84
Refinery Utilization 83.000


You just get the feeling that there are some funny things going on.... maybe it's just below the surface... maybe it just stayed too quiet for too long.... maybe it's just the season, people getting ready to gear up for summer...

a. We have this situation with the tankers, noted above... an unprecedented collapse in the baltic dry rate, lots of floating storage available.

b. big fluctuations in the import figure every week... the system importing as much oil as ever, even though the inventory is at a multi-decade high....

c. the refining capacity dropping temporarily to a new multi-decade low for April a couple of weeks ago, followed by an uptick last week..

d. the pricing, increasing a couple of dollars on Sunday night, like it did yesterday... still off by 66% versus a year ago...

e. You have the demand. Unleaded demand is within roundoff error of what it was last year at this time. Distillates way off, jet fuel way way off.... 

f. The little "gap" between calculated and actual demand on unleaded.... it was over 1.1 mbpd last week, which is really high, compared to its historical level of about .7, which suggests that there are a lot of blending components coming into the country, that are double counted as they are blended at the tank farm....

g. We have the trillions of dollars that were pumped into the economy over the last six months looking for a home... some of it ended up in gold, which is still over 900 I think.... perhaps some of it is ending up in oil.... 

h. No word from China on anything.... except their demand was down 16% or something year-on-year.

i. Suggestions that OPEC did indeed cut back this spring, but all of the volume being made up by Russia and Brazil

j. Potential collapse of Cantarell....

So, there are a lot of things going on in the subsurface, that for the moment are ending up as nothing, but might at some point end up as something.....

As long as we continue to import 1.1 mbpd of unleaded into the country, at the current usage levels, we will continue to build inventory.

Despite the increased refinery usage, plus deposits into the SPR, we will continue to build the crude a little... despite the fact that the citizens of Cushing are already ankle-deep...as long as we continue to import over 9 mbpd

the production dial is all the way turned toward "unleaded" right now, so we will be about even in distillates, as long as the demand remains seasonally like it now is.

This could get fun, if there are widespread disruptions in the travel system because of the flu.....

Perhaps it is time to lay in a supply of popcorn....

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Re: American Tax Protests Growing

Quote:
I wonder if a tea party Party could be formed out of this

...yeah, right. This stuff happens every few years.... and never accomplishes anything, because in the famous words of Howard Ruff, Americans have figured out how to vote themselves benefits out of the federal treasury, and that goes double for the middle class white guys who are running these so-called "protests". They whine about lower taxes, but at the same time do not want to give back the generous government benefits that they themselves are getting.They drive to the rally on roads that are paid for by the government, they go home to their suburban tract homes which are subsidized by tax breaks on their interest, they complain if their public school has a smaller stadium than the next suburb over.

They whine if somebody breaks into their car and steals their stereo because of too few policemen patrolling the streets... it's a big scandal if the government ambulance or fire department takes five minutes instead of one, to get to their house when they have the big H from eating subsidized beef and pork... They drive to work on to either a Lockheed plant, whose profits depend almost solely on their ability to sell more and more complex weapons systems to the US Military or Space Program, or else to their job on an assembly line at the new Kia plant, which was built out in the country by generous industrial revenue bonds issued by the county, or direct subsidy by the local and state government, which they were happy to do in order to get people to work and pay taxes to keep the whole thing going.

On the weekends, they go to the local lake, an impoundment put up by the Corps of Engineers to generate power, so that their electricity will be nice and cheap.... they catch a nice bass that was stocked in the lake by the Fish and Wildlife department. It is nice out there, clean, because the state paid someone to go out and pick up the old beer bottles....and kept the chemical plant upstream from discharging its waste directly into the water supply.

They call their elderly parents on the phone that night.... their elderly parents that have been kept alive via Medicaid and Medicare the last couple of years, after their heart attacks, which were caused by smoking the government subsidized tobacco all of those years, and they are happy that the old folks are able to live in their own house, subsidized by social security and/or a variety of other public pensions, without which they might actually have to (ugh) move in with them....

Who wants to cut back on all of that stuff?

nobody.

They go shopping.... where do we begin? The produce aisle? How much government money went to irrigate all that land out in California to produce all of those beautiful vegetables.... The bread department? Farm set-asides and supports for wheat farmers, regulation of the product by the FDA to keep it from poisoning you, and naturally, easy transportation via the highway system.... The milk section? Lord knows how much a gallon of milk would cost.... or whether or not it would be thinned out with formaldehyde like it was at the turn of the last century without government resources.... Anyplace else in the supermarket, including the supermarket itself, which is inspected by the local health authorities on a frequent basis to keep rats from overrunning the place....You can look no farther than the nearest jar of peanut butter to know what would happen to the food supply without some sort of government review or regulation.... and it is a huge scandal if the health department lets some guy get something past them....

So, these guys can protest all they want.... but they would not think of walking away from some of these things...Better yet, they should spend some time in the so-called "developing countries" to see what life is like without a lot of this stuff....starting first with a minimum wage, and some labor and job safety laws, that keep you from getting your fingers chopped off in some piece of unsafe equipment.... all of that stuff takes government resources...laws, regulations, and inspectors.....I have been all over the world, including the so-called worker's paradise in China, and can tell you some stories....

Now to be sure, the tax system we have is bullshit, and I am second to no one in my desire to have some of this be common-sense such as not requiring 10 handicap parking spots in front of the local skating rink...but I would say that 99% of the fat white guys that are running this stuff have no idea how good they have it.

Since I am in a ranting mood.....That is not to say that the government, at any level, is organized in some kind of efficient way either....Billions spent on weapons systems, hardware, satellites and other crap for the military that is the next thing to useless....I just had to laugh at the following article on Savinar's site today....http://exiledonline.com/the-war-nerd-this-is-how-the-carriers-will-die/
Quote:
Seriously: why are there aircraft carriers? For asses like John McCain to crash on. Why do they keep getting funded long after they’ve been shown up? The same reason knights were galloping around pretending that the longbow hadn’t turned half their friends into pincushions: because it was a way of life for the richest and dumbest people in the country and they weren’t about to let it go.

A military that is designed to project power and protect our oil supply and keep the system together another year, which is unable to protect two of our three tallest buildings from attack by a seven-foot, left-handed, cave dweller on dialysis, and unable to conquer a nation of 22 million rug salesmen in five years, at the expense of a Trillion dollars....and unable to protect our southern border from an invasion by somewhere between six and ten million potential guerilla fighters....A school system in which the lowest paid people, the teachers, are the least respected, but simultaneously the ones in charge of performing the actual customer service, while the good old boy ex-football coaches, as Ross Perot used to say, are running the show, making the curricculum decisions to fit the economy of 1977, while the kids are going to have to earn a living in 2037, while the little kids in Malaysia are working their asses off to learn English so they can take our jobs while we sell hamburgers to one another.....

In our state, the two highest paid State employees are the two football coaches at the state universities... followed by the basketball coaches.

The ongoing catastrophe that is our "social welfare" system, that is anything but, and fails to produce anything except another generation of government-dependent thugs....and the development of a permanent underclass...

State and local agencies that are used as a jobs program, to fatten up a particular constituency, or tilt regulatory activities in one way or the other, rather than as a way to provide government services....

The Democrats used to be the prime proponents of this, as anyone who has waited in line at the DMV knows, but Republicans became expert in this by populating the federal agencies with of graduates of Liberty University and other similar places ref: Monica Goodling

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monica_Goodling

Our billion-dollars worth of jails are full of non-violent drug users, while our biggest growth industry, from various reports, is the importation of "illegal" dope from places such as Afghanistan, which is ostensibly under the control of the US Military, and one or more of our Southern neighbors.....

Our bridges fall down, our levees break....one thunderstorm in Chicago sends our air-traffic-control system, if you want to call it that, into complete chaos....

we have a massive bureaucracy in charge of preventing 75 year old ladies from carrying on more than three ounces of &^#$& toothpaste aboard an airplane flight...and containerloads of dope and other contraband coming into the country via the highways and ports....

But, we keep spending the money. In fact, we spend much more than we take in, because the coward politicians will not go to the public and ask them to pay for the government services...I don't blame them. They're probably embarrassed, the system being in the condition that it is in. They might be held accountable.

And accountability.... that's a joke. A politician's popularity is more linked to how much pork he can bring back to the state.... and congress still has a 90 percent re-election rate, despite the chaos.The bailout thing... that adds a completely new dimension to the problem....an unprecedented taxpayer reward of incompetence.... or corruption... or some combination, never before seen in human history. Ironically that whole thing has an excellent chance to swamp any of the above in terms of the sheer magnitude and audacity ....

I can come to only one conclusion: We are stupid.

I guess people are people.... maybe it's human nature. Individually, we can all see that there is a problem, but collectively, we are a bunch of idiots. I am afraid there is going to be a lot of chaos, and there is no way to make it any better with the system the way it is, and no guarantee that any other system will make it any better.

But, it's unsustainable, at the scale at which we are now trying to run it, in the way we are trying to do it.

Sorry to tell you this close to lunchtime. It's enough to make you sick.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

GM Pensions Could Be Worthless

All pension schemes, be they GM, Social Security or 401K are not supportable in the long term without perpetual growth. The longer a company is in business, the more retired workers it generates. You need to keep increasing the number of new workers and the size of the business to pay for all the retirees you produce as well.Immigration was encouraged in the US to keep the Ponzi scheme alive. As long as more workers kept coming in and could be taxed on their labor and their consumption, those at the top of the pyriamid who got in early could still be paid off. Now of course, nobody wants new immigration, because there aren't any jobs for them on which they could be taxed to support everyone else.

It doesn't matter whether you saved for your retirement yourself in a 401K invested in "safe" Bonds or whether you participated in a pension scheme like GM or just stuffed your mattress full of dollar bills, you still will get the same result in all cases. There isn't productivity to keep paying nonproductive people in perpetuity. The money in the matress gets renderred valueless over time thru inflation.

There is no such thing as a "safe" investment, and everybody is going to get punished for simply being part of this system to begin with.Blaming GMs failure on the burden of its pension system or the Unions is ludicrous. The whole REASON workers gave up their lives to deadly boring jobs on the assembly line was because of the PROMISE made to them of security through the pension and health care bennies they offered to employees. That is HOW GM got its workers. Unions simply negotiated on behalf of the workers for the best deal they could get, and you always have more bargaining power as a group than as an individual. Of course as soon as they could find cheaper forms of unorganized labor in China and Mexico, off they went to those places with the jobs, but by then it was all being financed thru debt anyhow, and they still had the burden of obligations made to get the car company off the ground in the first place.

It had to fail, and so it did. Its really just a microcosm of the whole Capitalist scheme, which eventualy becomes top heavy and periodically has to crash. Long as there is still exploitable resource out there you can restart after a while, but we are fresh out of those resources now.How long before every last system here collapses?

ShortonOil pins the maximum as late in 2011, that seems a reasonable estimate to me, but I'll be surprised if it lasts that long. Every last financial scheme out there is in some stage of collapse at the moment, and is only being propped up by steady infusions of Funny Money. Its all going up in flames now, in the Greatest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in all of Recorded History.